Vogliamo insegnare tutta la storia umana - passato, presente e futuro

Peter C. Bishop, già docente di foresight strategico a Houston, fondatore e direttore esecutivo di Teach the Future.

 

Il come anticipiamo fa la differenza, perché cambia il nostro presente

Riel Miller, Foresight – UNESCO

 

Il futuro non è un luogo verso cui siamo diretti, ma un luogo che stiamo creando.
Non troviamo i percorsi, ma li realizziamo, e questa stessa attività cambia noi stessi e la destinazione.

John Schaar (1928-2011), consulente scientifico del presidente Nixon, docente a Berkeley

 

Cerchiamo di far coesistere diversi futuri nella nostra mente, se il nostro obiettivo è quello di essere resilienti.

Anthony (Tony) Hodgson, International Futures Forum e fondatore di Decision Integrity Limited

Intervista di –skopìa a Hodgson

 

L'anticipazione è una versione innovativa del pensiero strategico.

Roberto Poli

 

Tutti i modelli sono sbagliati, ma alcuni sono utili.

George Box (1919 –2013), statistico pioniere del controllo di qualità

 

Gli esseri umani non si comportano come tutti gli altri animali. Un singolo uomo o donna può cambiare la storia di una specie intera, a partire da una visione, un’aspirazione, la potenza di un'idea da realizzare.

Garry Jacobs, World Academy of Art and Science

I limiti del forecasting sono notori: i dati non sono affidabili e le previsioni non riescono a contemplare discontinuità e sorprese.

Andrew Curry, dirigente presso The Futures Company, Londra

 

Dobbiamo imparare a pensare partendo dalle cose che devono ancora accadere.

Liisa Välikangas, Institute for the Future

 

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Anticipazione Strategica

Consulenza innovativa e formazione per le aziende

-skopìa[BUSINESS]

Governare i Cambiamenti

Formazione e affiancamento per le Pubbliche Amministrazioni

-skopìa[POLICY]

Laboratori di futuro

Formazione e laboratori di futuro in classe per la Scuola

-skopìa[EDUCATION]

Che cos'è -skopìa

-skopìa è una start up dell’Università di Trento

È una società che sviluppa competenze basate sulla prospettiva dell’Anticipazione, fornisce consulenze di intelligence strategica e analisi dei cambiamenti, dei rischi e delle opportunità, nonché servizi di accompagnamento e formazione a favore di aziende, amministrazioni pubbliche e scuole.

-skopìa inoltre fornisce ricerca applicata per la pubblica amministrazione e le imprese basata sulle scienze dell’anticipazione. L’anticipazione include sia le previsioni (ad esempio da trend storici) sia l’esplorazione di futuri possibili (ad esempio attraverso scenari), ma è più ampia e generale.

These are very turbulent and, in so many ways, unprecedented, pivotal times, when old paradigms sink and new paradigms emerge, when new pathways become available, new horizons open up and we are faced with strategic choices. Some paths will bear fruits and others will be dead-ends; others may be disastrous.

Where do we go from here? To which paradigm do we hitch our wagon? How do we decide amidst all the spin, clichés and uncertainties? Or rather, how do we switch from a reactive mode to a reflective mode? And, finally, the most crucial question of all, which he has added to his LinkedIn profile: where is humanity at on a pathway of conscious evolution?

With decades of experience in strategy development and scenario planning for private businesses and public administrations under his belt, Anthony Hodgson, Director of Research and World Modelling Coordinator for the International Futures Forum, a think tank based in Scotland’s Fife, holds that we must have several futures in mind and cultivate future consciousness in people if our aim to be resilient.
This is because tomorrow won’t be like today and those who think otherwise produce foresight with little action and even less insight.

During his talk at the First International Conference on Anticipation, held in Trento in November 2015, Hodgson quoted a piece of advice from none other than David Bohm: “you must think faster than the horse or else you will go where the horse wants to go”.
The key is mindful anticipation: a system is resilient when it is capable of being ahead of itself.

While in Trento, he has been so kind as to share with us some of his insights and views.

Mr. Hodgson, would you like to explain to us what you mean by “anticipation”?
Authentic anticipation is something more intelligent than what we are doing right now. There is no established anticipatory governance whatsoever, and some traces of anticipation can only be found in commercial trading and the military which also raises the issue of the ethicality of its use

What is the systemic nature of anticipation?

In my model it is the capacity to discriminate information coming from the past from the information coming from the future and to act upon it in a way that privileges the move towards a desired future.

What do you mean by “information coming from the future”? Are you implying time travelling?

What I have in mind is illustrated by what was occurring at the time that Mendeleev was assembling his periodic table of the elements. He shut himself in a room for three days during which he reshuffled the elements with their symbols until the chart took a coherent shape. He was then able to predict that the missing pieces would be discovered in the following years. Those gaps were signals from the future of chemistry and atomic physics.
In point of fact, anticipation applied to scientific research would be a promising field of research. It could include more fringe investigations like Dean Radin’s “Entangled minds”.

He is definitely onto something.

Indeed, he is, and we should also mention physicist Richard Feynman’s concept of waves coming from the future, as well as anticipatory phenomena being revealed by quantum biology. For example, consider the recently identified protein in the cells of migratory birds (as for instance the European robin) which enables them to sense the inclinations of Earth’s magnetic field, guiding them like a compass needle on their lengthy migrations. Perhaps mindfulness, in human beings, serves to discriminate a kind of signal from the future and to translate it into action.

Aren’t you afraid that they will label you “new-agey”?

My research relies on the solid work of Robert Rosen. That is a stepping-stone, but I’ve been connecting the dots from other people’s work. The scientific literature on which I base my research is impressive. For example, it is not widely known that there is valid research on remote viewing of the future.

Are we on a mission to save the future?
If anything, we are on a mission to save a future and, as far as I am concerned, my aim is to create something in this field that it is useful and intelligible, especially for the younger generations, who are unavoidably bound to live through the turbulences of inevitable change us aging people are leaving them with.
I wish to be of assistance to their creating a future that I tend to summarize as “one planet living with social justice”.

Would that be the most desirable future?
There are many futures, but I want this, instead of the one in which we are plundering the planet of its resources.
It’s about values.
There are values and, consequently, such a thing as an underlying ethical motivation in my being interested in this perspective. We need to realise that ethics is not abstract. There are consequences.
It is a vital necessity.

Established institutions and vested interests are struggling to preserve the status quo: are anticipators inherently subversive?
They are subversive because systemically intelligent. It’s important not to be constrained by established orthodoxies imposed by people who simply don’t get it.
Our approach would appear to be unorthodox and iconoclastic, but only from the point of view of the establishment.

In the movie Tomorrowland, a projector of “gloom and doom” visions entrenched humanity into a suicidal state of fatalism, nihilism and cynicism, acting as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Is this what is going on today?
To some extent.

What is resilience?
Plasticity equals resilience

Is there a direct link between resilience and anticipation?
I distinguish between adaptive resilience – e.g. the recovery from a disaster, such as a flooding – and resilience 2.0, or transformative resilience.
So if you ask me about resilience, I will first need to ask you what kind of resilience you are referring to.

What sort of resilience do we need the most?
In the Anthropocene adaptive resilience is not enough.
It is no longer a question of getting back to normal. Transformative resilience is the means by which we can ‘wormhole’ our way through a pocket of the future in the present and emerge at a higher stage of human civilization, after a positive shock and the reframing of our mindset.
What we need to learn is to help the old civilization to die and midwife the birth of the new one.

How do we do that?
Technological innovation alone won’t be enough to achieve that harmlessly, without a shock.
If you go with resilience 2.0 then you also need the more “spooky” kind of anticipation, that is, the one centred on retrocausality (unconventional assumptions about time), future consciousness (undivided universe or field of consciousness; internal visualisation), and future making, which assumes that the future can arise from authentic origination.

That is subversive on so many levels!
Sure. At that point you will be thought of as a subversive or a saviour depending on who is affected by your actions. After all, for those managing the current power structure, even anticipation 1.0 is too subversive!.

Why do experts fail in their predictions? What distinguishes an impressive prognosticator/anticipator?
We need the sort of moral courage mentioned by Ruth Levitas in her talk at Anticipation 2015. Impressive prognosticators are courageous and are also good at applying their skills to themselves in the first place.

Is a stoic predisposition – beyond fear and desire – the key to reliable anticipations?
It’s the gentle art of reperception: you can’t teach it through confrontation.
For in that way you would compress someone else’s consciousness instead of assisting in its expansion, which is really what the capacity of anticipation is all about.
At the end of the day, if you are not curious and demonstrate no yearning for knowledge, you will never become an impressive anticipator.

So why not call it wisdom and urge the establishment of a institution of councils of wise anticipators?
Wisdom is indeed ethical anticipation.

In order to deepen your understanding of this perspective you can contact Anthony (Tony) Hodgson by email at Questo indirizzo email è protetto dagli spambots. È necessario abilitare JavaScript per vederlo. or Roberto Poli (who has been his external examiner for his Ph.D. viva at Hull University) at Questo indirizzo email è protetto dagli spambots. È necessario abilitare JavaScript per vederlo.

La missione di -skopìa

-skopìa in tutti i suoi mercati intende disseminare della cultura dell’Anticipazione, assistendo le organizzazioni nel superare la logica reattiva (prima succede qualcosa e poi si risponde).

Lavorare con il futuro richiede competenze specifiche: gestire le incertezze strategiche non è un gioco!

-skopìa preferisce lavorare CON le organizzazioni invece di lavorare PER le organizzazioni.

-skopìa insegna a sviluppare la lungimiranza con visioni win-win.

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L’anticipazione è…

Esplorare assieme in modo scientifico futuri possibili.

Capire i grandi cambiamenti in corso e prepararsi già da oggi.

Mitigare i rischi futuri intercettando in anticipo le opportunità.

Contatti

Salita dei Molini, 2 - 38123 Villazzano di Trento (TN) Italy

+39 0461 283703

info@skopia-anticipation.it

dal Lunedì al Venerdì: 10.00 - 18.00

About -skopìa

-skopìa S.r.l. è una start up innovativa dell'Università degli Studi di Trento.